Moving Up? Do it Now!

Moving Up? Do It Now | The KCM Crew

A recent study revealed that the number of existing home owners planning to buy a home this year is about to increase dramatically. Some are moving up, some are downsizing and others are making a lateral move. Another study shows that over 75% of these buyers will, in fact, be in that first category: a move-up buyer. We want to address this group of buyers in today’s blog post.

There is no way for us to predict the future but we can look at what happened over the last year. Let’s look at buyers that considered moving up last year but decided to wait instead.

Assume they had a home worth $300,000 and were looking at a home for $450,000 (putting 10% down they would get a mortgage of $405,000). By waiting, their house appreciated by approximately 10% over the last year (based on the Case Shiller Pricing Index). Their home could now sell for $330,000. That would mean an additional $30,000 in equity assuming they didn’t incur any expenses in selling the home.

But, the $450,000 home would now be worth $495,000. Adding the original 10% down payment ($45,000) to the additional equity ($30,000), they would now have a $75,000 down payment. That would still need a mortgage of $425,000.

Here is a table showing what additional monthly cost would be incurred by waiting:

Cost of Waiting Visual Members

According to the Home Price Expectation Survey, home prices are projected to appreciate by approximately 6% over the next eighteen months. Interest rates are also expected to rise by as much as another full percentage point in that same time period according to FreddieMac. If your family plans to move-up to a nicer or bigger home, it may make sense to move now rather than later.

Millennials: Diversify with Housing

Justin DeCesare is back as our guest blogger today. Justin is the CEO of Middleton & Associates Real Estate, one of the largest independently owned Brokerages in coastal San Diego. 

A recent article written by Kelley Holland of CNBC titled “Retirement trumps home ownership for millennials” references a National Endowment for Financial Education study that claims only 13% of Millennials see home ownership as a top priority.

Half of the same sample claimed retirement saving was their primary goal.

To me, as both a Millennial and a Real Estate Broker/CEO, the answers to this survey stem from the perception of what home ownership is.

The last decade, or the fail decade as it is known by MSNBC’s Chris Hayes, has wiped out countless sums of home equity. Even in the gains of the last two years, we are not back at the record highs of 2005 and 2006.

The correlation here is that this decline in home prices is when Millennials have come of age. We have grown up in a time when people began treating home ownership like they would a swing trade. It became the same as renting, but with the possibility for a quick return. Pride of ownership left the picture and Real Estate was turned into another get rich quick scheme.

The free-market economics of the Real Estate Market took over when the bubble was too full, and for most of the average Millennials adult life they have heard nothing but Real Estate negativity in the media.

As the market rebounds, and the understanding that home ownership provides for long term wealth takes over the perception of how retirement savings can be made, I am sure future results of this study will change.

1994 was 20 years ago.

Go back in the public records (or your MLS if it reaches two decades ago) and find some homes that were sold and have remained with one owner since. Even considering the plummeting values of the late 2000s, the home values and retirement savings are still there.

As Agents and Brokers, it is our duty to help our clients and not simply act as a salesman.

My suggestion to you is that as you are breaking down the monthly payments of your young clients’ mortgage, help them see how the home itself is more than a dwelling and how it will play into the diversity of their retirement plans.

Future House Prices: A Look into the Crystal Ball

Home-Price-Expectation-275Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why  the Home Price Expectation Survey is a great barometer. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey

  • Home values will appreciate by 4.4% in 2014.
  • The cumulative appreciation will be 19.5% by 2018.
  • That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.6% over the next 5 years.
  • Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 9.4% by 2018.

Individual opinions make headlines. This survey is a fairer depiction of future values.

FSBO Millionaires Use Real Estate Agents

We pride ourselves on the quality of real estate information we deliver each and every day. We try to gather empirical evidence to validate the positions we take. We do not use just an anecdotal story to make a point. We also do not get caught up in the sensationalism of the moment. However, today will be different.

Confusion2Do as I Say… not as I Do

This adage could be no truer today after it has been reported, in a recent Herald Tribune article, that when it came to selling his Florida mansion, Al Bennati, the longtime chief executive of BuyOwner.com, has chosen to list his home with a local real estate agent.

BuyOwner.com is one of many websites out there now that encourage home owners that they do not need to enlist the help of a professional agent to be able to sell their home. They go as far as to tell homeowners:

“BuyOwner.com allows you to reach the most potential buyers in the shortest amount of time, in the most effective (the Internet) and most cost effective manner (no commission!) possible.”

Let’s break down that statement:

Myth #1 – The internet is the most effective way to sell your home

Many have said that, with the introduction of home search on the internet, hiring an agent is no longer a necessity. When the time came to list his own home, Bennati went against his own advice saying:

“To sell a home of this magnitude, it needs to be done by a person and a company that reaches buyers of this caliber.”

Myth #2 – FSBO’ing is the most cost effective solution

Without proper exposure to the “right kind of buyers” your home will not sell. Many real estate professionals have elaborate strategies to get your listing in front of exactly who needs to see it.

The most recent Home Sellers’ and Buyers’ Profile Report from the National Association of Realtors revealed that, though 92% of buyers search for a home on the internet, 90% still use a real estate professional.

This isn’t the first time that a CEO of a major FSBO website has enlisted the help of an agent when the time came to sell their own home. In August of 2011 it was reported that Colby Sambrotto of forsalebyowner.com who, after failing to sell his home using FSBO websites, needed an agent to sell his NYC apartment.

And, he got more money!!!!

Bottom Line

Two separate people made fortunes convincing others to sell their home through their FSBO sites. Yet, when it came to selling their own home, they recognized the value of using a real estate professional.

There is a reason the real estate industry has been around for centuries: it performs a valuable service.