Will an Increase in Interest Rates Crush Home Prices?

Will an Increase in Interest Rates Crush Home Prices? | Simplifying The Market

There are some who are calling for a substantial drop in home prices should mortgage interest rates begin to rise rapidly. Intuitively that makes sense. The cost of a home is determined by the price of the home and the price of financing that home. If mortgage interest rates increase, less people will be able to buy. The logic says prices will fall if demand decreases.

However, history shows us that this has not been the case the last four times mortgage interest rates dramatically increased.

Here is a graph showing what actually did happen:

Interest Rate Increases | Simplifying The Market

We will have to wait and see what happens as we move forward. But, a fall in prices should rates go up is not guaranteed.

The Real Estate Market Has Turned The Corner

The Real Estate Market Has Turned The Corner | Simplifying The Market

As we finish 2014, it appears the real estate market is once again on solid footing and ready to advance forward over the next few years. The strength of the market can be viewed using two metrics: projected home values and projected house sales.

We recently reported that the Home Price Expectation Survey revealed future home values will continue to appreciate nicely. Today we want to look at projections on the number of home sales (existing and new construction) we will see over the next two years. We researched what the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) are projecting for the housing industry going forward.

Here is what we found:

The Real Estate Market Has Turned The Corner | Simplifying The Market

All three entities see the number of home sales increasing in both 2015 and 2016. This is further proof the housing market is back.

Sales Up in almost Every Price Range

Sales Up in almost Every Price Range | Simplifying The Market

The National Association of Realtors’ most recent Existing Home Sales Report revealed that home sales were up rather dramatically over last year in five of the six price ranges they measure. Only those homes priced under $100,000 showed a decline (-6%). Every other category showed a minimum increase of at least 9.7%.

Here is the breakdown:

Sales Up in almost Every Price Range | Simplifying The Market

What does that mean to you if you are selling?

Houses are definitely selling. If your house has been on the market for any length of time and has not yet sold, perhaps it is time to sit with your agent and see if it is priced appropriately to compete in today’s market.

Home Prices Continue to Rise

Home Prices Continue to Rise | Simplifying The Market

“Broad-based Slowdown for Home Prices”

That is a headline you might have seen over the past weekend. And though it is true, we must understand the story behind the headline. Case Shiller reports on the year-over-year difference in home values. Their latest report revealed that the rate of appreciation has slowed – not that prices are falling!! Here is exactly what they said:

“The 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year, compared to 5.6% in August.”

Prices are still up this month over last year’s values (4.9%) just not as much as they were last month (5.6%).

Home Prices are NOT Falling.

As a matter of fact, the latest Home Price Expectation Survey by Pulsenomics (a survey of a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists) showed that home prices will continue to appreciate for the next several years.

Home Price Expectation Survey Projected Prices | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

Both first time buyers and families thinking of moving-up to their dream home can be assured that their investment in their new home makes sense.

Freddie Mac: Buy Sooner Rather than Later

Freddie Mac: Buy Sooner Rather than Later | Simplifying The Market

In a recent video update on the housing market, Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, stated that with both mortgage interest rates and home prices projected to increase in 2015 buying now makes sense.

“If you are planning to buy a home in the next year, it’s better to do it sooner rather than later.”

Here are the latest mortgage interest rate projections from four major housing entities: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

Mortgage Rate Projections | Simplifying The Market

Thinking of Selling & Moving Up?

This advice isn’t limited to just the first time buyer. If you are considering moving up to the home your family has always wanted, waiting also makes no sense.

Top 5 Benefits of Using a Professional to Buy a Home

Top 5 Benefits of Using a Professional to Buy A Home | Simplifying The Market

Every year the National Association of REALTORS releases their Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers, in which they reveal the results of a yearlong survey of buyers and sellers. The latest profile revealed what actual buyers saw as the benefits of using an agent during the home buying process.

Here are the Top 5:

#1: Helped the Buyer Understand the Process

Whether it is your first time purchasing a home, or you’re an experienced buyer, there are over 230 possible actions that need to happen during every successful real estate transaction.

Having someone to guide you through the process who can simply explain what is going on at every step of the way was sited as the top benefit by 63% of all buyers (that number jumped to 83% with first time buyers).

#2: Pointed Out Unnoticed Features/Faults with the Property

When you start the process of buying a home, you may be too excited to see each potential home for what it is, good and bad. An experienced professional can help you realize the potential hidden gems or risks before you make an offer.  Nearly 60% of all buyers listed this as a major benefit of hiring a professional.

#3: Improved the Buyer’s Knowledge of Search Areas

Whether you are looking to relocate to a new state, or just across town, having someone who knows the neighborhoods in which you are looking can be an invaluable asset.

#4: Negotiated Better Sales Contract Terms/Better Price

In today’s market, hiring a talented negotiator could save you thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of dollars. Each step of the way – from the original offer, to the possible renegotiation of that offer after a home inspection, to the possible cancellation of the deal based on a troubled appraisal – you need someone who can keep the deal together until it closes.

#5: Provided a better list of service providers

A great agent has relationships with mortgage professionals, home inspectors, appraisers and other experts that you will need in securing your dream home.

Bottom Line

If you are considering purchasing a home, whether as a first-time or move up buyer, sit down with a local experienced real estate professional in your area and see what they have to offer.