Recently, Freddie Mac published a blog post titled Mortgage Rates: Still the Deal of the Century. They explained that, if you are planning to purchase a home, now may be the time:
“If you are in the market to buy a home, today’s average mortgage rates are something to celebrate compared to almost any year since 1971.”
Some Important Points To Consider:
- The latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reports the 30-year fixed rate at 3.7%.
- Freddie Mac’s projection for Q2 2016 is that the rate will be 4.7% (a full percentage point higher)
- The Home Price Expectation Survey predicts that home prices will appreciate by 4.4% during this same time
The impact waiting a year to purchase your dream home can make on your monthly payment is significant. Contact me today to discuss your options before the experts’ predictions become reality!
Whether you are a first time or a move-up buyer, there are two factors that will impact the amount of house you can afford in your price range: home prices & mortgage rates.
Let’s look at what the experts are predicting over the next twelve months for these two areas:
The 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is currently still below 4%. Many buyers may be on the fence as to whether to act now and purchase a new home, or wait until next year, believing they still have time to lock in a low rate.
If you look at what the experts are predicting over the course of the next 12 months, it may make the decision for you.
Predictions for 2016 2Q:
- 4.2% – Fannie Mae
- 4.7% – Freddie Mac
- 4.9% – Mortgage Bankers Association
- 5.3% – National Association of Realtors
Even an increase of half a percentage point can put a dent in your family’s net worth.
Let’s look at it this way…
The monthly payment (principal & interest only) on a $250,000 home today, with the current 3.86% interest rate would be $1,173.
If we take that same home a year later, the Home Price Expectation Survey projects that prices will rise about 4.4% making that home cost $11,000 more at $261,000.
If we take Freddie Mac’s rate projection of 4.7%, the monthly mortgage payment climbs to $1,354.
Some buyers might not think that an extra $181 a month is that bad. But over the course of 30-year mortgage you have spent an additional $65,160 by waiting a year.
The interest rate you pay on your home mortgage has a direct impact on your monthly payment. The higher the rate the greater the payment will be. That is why it is important to look at where rates are headed when deciding to buy now or wait until next year.
Below is a chart created using Freddie Mac’s February 2015 U.S. Economic & Housing Marketing Outlook. As you can see interest rates are projected to increase steadily over the course of 2015.
How Will This Impact Your Mortgage Payment?
Depending on the amount of the loan that you secure, a half of a percent (.5%) increase in interest rate can increase your monthly mortgage payment significantly.
Research released by Zillow touched on this point:
“As rates rise, new home buyers will confront higher financing costs and monthly mortgage payments. For many, this will mean tightening their budgets and sacrificing some luxuries they may take for granted today.”
The experts predict that home prices will appreciate by 4.4% over the course of 2015. If both predictions become reality, families would wind up paying considerably more for their home.
Even a small increase in interest rate can impact your family’s wealth. Meet with a local real estate professional to evaluate your ability to purchase your dream home.
The headlines agree mortgage interest rates have dropped substantially below initial projections. Many who are considering purchasing a home, or moving up to their dream home, might think that they should wait to buy, because rates may continue to fall.
A recent article on the Economists’ Outlook blog by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) provides insight into one major factor in the decline in interest rates, the crude oil price.
“As of January 5, 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the price of regular gasoline was $2.20/gallon, the lowest since gas prices peaked to about $ 4/gallon in May 2011.”
You may have noticed that filling your gas tank has become substantially less expensive in recent months. A welcome change from the close to $5 a gallon that many Americans were paying this time last year. The average US household is projected to save around $550 in 2015.
So what does that have to do with Interest Rates?
NAR explains the correlation like this:
“Lower oil prices mean lower inflation rate, which pushes down mortgage rates.”
Based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey as of January 22, 2015, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.63% and the 15-year fixed rate averaged 2.93%.
“The decline in oil prices is generally positive to households by way of the gas savings and lower mortgage payments. That savings will boost consumer spending in other areas. But there may be some layoffs in oil-producing states.”
How long will rates stay low?
No one really knows how long oil prices will continue to support low mortgage rates. In a New York Times article, the author points to the fact that “adding hundreds of billions of dollars to consumer spending” could start to have a “counter effect” on rates as the economy continues to strengthen.
“If firms start hiring again, and wages increase — that’s when the level of all interest rates in the U.S. would increase.”
Don’t wait too long
The low interest rates we are currently experiencing are not going to stay around forever. The current projections from Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, NAR and the Mortgage Bankers Association all agree that interest rates will increase to between 4.3-5.4% by the end of 2015.
NAR reports: “At the median home price of $205,300, a 0.75 percentage point drop in mortgage rates will yield savings of about $1,000 annually.”
If you are in a position to buy a home I would love to meet with you and discuss what’s going on in the market. Don’t let a delay in purchasing impact your family’s financial future.
We finished 2014 with the 30 year fixed mortgage rate at 3.87% as per Freddie Mac. This is very close to the historic lows in the spring of 2013.
“Barring another financial and housing market implosion, and if the economy continues to improve, expect interest rates to rise in the latter half of 2015. If they do jump to the 5% range it will be a modest hike when compared to historical averages. Rates will still be far below the approximately 8.5% 30-year fixed-rates mortgages have averaged since 1971 when Freddie Mac started tracking them. Rates averaged 6% in the years leading up to the recession.”
Here are the latest 2015 mortgage rate projections from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers’ Association and the National Association of Realtors: