Housing Inventory Slowly Disappearing | Simplifying The Market

Housing Inventory Slowly Disappearing

The price of any item is determined by the supply of that item, and the market demand. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their latest Existing Home Sales Report this week.

Inventory Levels & Demand

Amidst reporting on the fact that sales of existing homes rose 1.2% from January, and outpaced year-over-year figures for the fifth consecutive month, was the news that total unsold housing inventory is at 4.6-month supply.
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Location, Location, Location

Location, Location, Location | Simplifying The Market

A recent Demand Institute report revealed “nearly half of all American households plan to move at some point in the future.”

Seventy-five percent of those surveyed in the report cited one or more ‘location-related reasons’ for their eagerness to move. Here are the top 5 reasons:

  1. Safer Neighborhood – 30%
  2. Closer to Family – 27%
  3. Change of Climate – 26%
  4. Closer to Work – 25%
  5. For a New Job – 23%

While the majority of Americans (74%) will move within their home state, for the 26% planning to call a new state home, it is important to know that prices in each state are appreciating at different rates and waiting to buy or sell your home could cost you more in the long run.

The map below was created using the FHFA’s latest Home Price Index and shows year-over-year price gains in each state.

Year-Over-Year Price Gains | Simplifying The Market

 

Bottom Line

If your plan for 2015 includes relocating to a new state, meet with a local real estate professional in that area who can help you find the best fit for you and your family’s needs.

Is Another Bubble Forming?

Is Another Bubble Forming? | Simplifying The Market

After the housing market bust we experienced across the country in 2008, many experts have been quick to warn that a new bubble may be forming in some areas.

One particular example of this is a recent article pointing toward the California Bay Area’s price gains over the last 18 months.

The quickest and easiest way to show how far we’ve come and how far we still need to go in regards to the ‘Peak’ is to share CoreLogic’s Price & Time Since Peak figures, used to create the map below.

CoreLogic Price & Time Since Peak | Simplifying The Market

Even with the high performance of prices in the Bay Area, the state of California as a whole is still -14.4% below their Peak, experienced in May of 2006.

The biggest challenge facing the housing market’s recovery right now is the lack of inventory available for sale. Prices are determined by supply and demand. Right now buyer demand is out-pacing seller supply, across many price ranges, driving prices up.

Bottom Line

Traditionally the Spring months have been the most popular dates sellers choose to list their homes. With additional inventory coming to market soon, meet with a professional in your local market to evaluate your best course of action.

Are House Prices Beginning to Accelerate Again?

Are House Prices Beginning to Accelerate Again? | Simplifying The Market

In a recent post, we explained that the supply of homes for sale in December was at its lowest level in over a year. The January National Housing Trend Report from realtor.com now reveals that inventory in January has decreased another 6.7% month over month and 8.7% year over year. This is occurring at the same time that buyer activity (demand) remains strong.

This prompted realtor.com’s Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke to report:

“January’s inventory data suggest a continuation of the tightening trend we identified last month in the December data, and with a shortage of inventory typically comes increased home prices. Half of the 200 markets realtor.com tracks experienced year-over-year price increases of at least 6% in January.”

This after the National Association of Realtors (NAR) had already reported in their latest quarterly report:

“The majority of metropolitan areas experienced steady but slightly stronger price growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, behind a decline in housing supply and an uptick in demand fueled by lower interest rates and a stronger job market.”

Bottom Line

Whether you are a first time buyer or a move-up buyer, now may be time to purchase a home – before prices increase any further.

Two Graphs that Scream – List Your Home Today!

Two Graphs that Scream - List Your Home Today! | Simplifying The Market

We all learned in school that when selling anything, you will get the most money if the demand for that item is high and the inventory of that item is low. It is the well-known Theory of Supply & Demand.

If you are thinking of selling your home, here are two graphs that strongly suggest that the time is now. Here is why…

DEMAND

According to research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), buyer activity last month (January) was three times greater than it was last January. Purchasers who are ready, willing and able to buy are in the market at great numbers.

Buyer Demand | Simplifying The Market

SUPPLY

The most recent Existing Home Sales Report from NAR revealed that the months’ supply of housing inventory had fallen to 4.4 months which is the lowest it has been in over a year.

Months Supply of Home For Sale | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

Listing your house for sale when demand is high and supply is low will guarantee the offers made will truly reflect the true value of your property.

Home Prices: A 5-Year Outlook

Home Prices: A 5-Year Outlook | Simplifying The Market

With inventory presently below historically normal levels, current & future home prices have been the topic of many real estate conversations. The most recent Home Price Expectation Survey was just released; giving insight into where experts believe prices will be leading up to 2019.

Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

Here are some highlights from their latest survey:

  • Home values will appreciate by 4.4% in 2015.
  • The cumulative appreciation will be 19.3% by 2019.
  • That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.6% over the next 5 years.
  • Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 11.7% by 2019.

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe the survey is a fairer depiction of future values.

Will Higher Interest Rates Kill HOME SALES?

Will Higher Interest Rates Kill HOME SALES? | Simplifying The Market

The Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are each projecting mortgage interest rates to increase substantially over the next twelve months. What will that mean to the housing market in 2015?

Last week, we posted a graph showing that home prices appreciated each of the last four times mortgage interest rates dramatically increased. Today, we want to talk about the impact higher rates might have on the number of home sales.

The reason many experts are calling for a rise in rates is because they see a stabilizing economy. With the economy beginning to improve, they expect the employment situation to regain some ground lost during the recession, incomes to grow and for consumer confidence to improve.

What will that mean to home sales next year?

In its November 2014 U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook, Freddie Mac explains:

“While higher interest rates generally detract from housing activity, when they occur with strong job and income growth the net result can be increases in household formations, construction, and home sales. Our view for 2015 is exactly that, namely, income and job growth offset the negative effect of higher interest rates and translate into gains for the nation’s housing market.”

Bottom Line

Even with mortgage rates increasing, home sales and home appreciation should be just fine in 2015.

Will an Increase in Interest Rates Crush Home Prices?

Will an Increase in Interest Rates Crush Home Prices? | Simplifying The Market

There are some who are calling for a substantial drop in home prices should mortgage interest rates begin to rise rapidly. Intuitively that makes sense. The cost of a home is determined by the price of the home and the price of financing that home. If mortgage interest rates increase, less people will be able to buy. The logic says prices will fall if demand decreases.

However, history shows us that this has not been the case the last four times mortgage interest rates dramatically increased.

Here is a graph showing what actually did happen:

Interest Rate Increases | Simplifying The Market

We will have to wait and see what happens as we move forward. But, a fall in prices should rates go up is not guaranteed.