There are some who are calling for a substantial drop in home prices should mortgage interest rates begin to rise rapidly. Intuitively that makes sense. The cost of a home is determined by the price of the home and the price of financing that home. If mortgage interest rates increase, less people will be able to buy. The logic says prices will fall if demand decreases.
However, history shows us that this has not been the case the last four times mortgage interest rates dramatically increased.
Here is a graph showing what actually did happen:
We will have to wait and see what happens as we move forward. But, a fall in prices should rates go up is not guaranteed.
As we finish 2014, it appears the real estate market is once again on solid footing and ready to advance forward over the next few years. The strength of the market can be viewed using two metrics: projected home values and projected house sales.
We recently reported that the Home Price Expectation Survey revealed future home values will continue to appreciate nicely. Today we want to look at projections on the number of home sales (existing and new construction) we will see over the next two years. We researched what the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) are projecting for the housing industry going forward.
Here is what we found:
All three entities see the number of home sales increasing in both 2015 and 2016. This is further proof the housing market is back.
The National Association of Realtors’ most recent Existing Home Sales Report revealed that home sales were up rather dramatically over last year in five of the six price ranges they measure. Only those homes priced under $100,000 showed a decline (-6%). Every other category showed a minimum increase of at least 9.7%.
Here is the breakdown:
What does that mean to you if you are selling?
Houses are definitely selling. If your house has been on the market for any length of time and has not yet sold, perhaps it is time to sit with your agent and see if it is priced appropriately to compete in today’s market.
“Broad-based Slowdown for Home Prices”
That is a headline you might have seen over the past weekend. And though it is true, we must understand the story behind the headline. Case Shiller reports on the year-over-year difference in home values. Their latest report revealed that the rate of appreciation has slowed – not that prices are falling!! Here is exactly what they said:
“The 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year, compared to 5.6% in August.”
Prices are still up this month over last year’s values (4.9%) just not as much as they were last month (5.6%).
Home Prices are NOT Falling.
As a matter of fact, the latest Home Price Expectation Survey by Pulsenomics (a survey of a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists) showed that home prices will continue to appreciate for the next several years.
Both first time buyers and families thinking of moving-up to their dream home can be assured that their investment in their new home makes sense.
In a recent video update on the housing market, Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, stated that with both mortgage interest rates and home prices projected to increase in 2015 buying now makes sense.
“If you are planning to buy a home in the next year, it’s better to do it sooner rather than later.”
Here are the latest mortgage interest rate projections from four major housing entities: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
Thinking of Selling & Moving Up?
This advice isn’t limited to just the first time buyer. If you are considering moving up to the home your family has always wanted, waiting also makes no sense.